Planning

Forest Foresight is typically deployed in 3 phases, after which it can be considered ‘live’:

1. Preparation
   During this phase, which typically lasts 4 to 6 months, the FF team validates the commitment and willingness of local stakeholders to implement FF in the region. The global FF team adjusts the technology to make predictions for the region and prepares a dashboard to be used in the pilot. A pilot team is set up to select the pilot area(s), define the pilot governance model and draft a pilot plan. After the preparation, this team typically follows up on investigations and interventions.

2. Pilot
   During the pilot, FF aims to demonstrate its value in selected pilot areas for 6 months (typically 3-5 areas are selected according to a set of criteria such as diversity of stakeholders, and different drivers of deforestation). FF tools and processes are used for investigations and interventions, and feedback is collected on the predictions, dashboard, governance model and general effectiveness of FF. In the second half of the pilot, the team starts to prepare the scaling of FF to the full region (drafting a scaling plan, discussing with stakeholders and detailing the governance model).

3. Scaling
   After a successful pilot, FF can be scaled to a larger region (typically a full country, e.g. Gabon, or a full landscape, e.g. Congo Basin). During the scaling phase, the team onboards new areas and further formalizes stakeholder commitment and a larger governance model (e.g. including community representation). Integration with existing systems and processes can be further adjusted where needed, and agreements are made on how to manage the technology in the long term (i.e. ownership model).

4. Live
   After scaling, the technology is live: FF is widely adopted and used for investigations and interventions in the full region. KPIs are being monitored and FF is continuously improved based on user feedback.

Each phase has a set of stage-gate criteria that need to be met in order to start the next phase. These criteria are evaluated by the FF Steerco (with input from the Advisory Board).

FF team

The team required to implement FF in a region depends very much on the local circumstances and structure of stakeholders (which often include government institutes or ministries). A ‘host’ is defined who will lead activities that halt illegal deforestation leveraging the FF. A great host has forestry and spatial planning expertise and a mandate to coordinate and execute investigations and interventions. The host is supported by remote sensing experts and GIS experts to ensure the right data is included in the EWS tools.

WWF supports the host through EWS experience and program expertise, e.g. by sharing learnings from earlier EWS roll-outs and supporting the program execution and coordination. Next, WWF works with top-notch consulting partners to lead the technical development of the predictive model, dashboard and cloud infrastructure, and ensure data sourcing.

Activities

To meet the stage-gate criteria defined in the section ‘Planning’ of this chapter, a set of activities is required leading up to the pilot start. A typical planning of these activities is listed below for the preparation and pilot phases. However, the exact timeline and detailed requirements for each activity depend on the specific circumstances in the region. Hence, the plan needs to be adjusted for each EWS implementation to remain relevant.